FORECASTING EXCHANGE RATE WITH AR(1) AND MA(1)
In this study has a major problem with the B & J methodology, the problem is related to the inaccuracy of the identification stage of MA and AR model. The process of autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation of the actual data is very difficult to interpret accurately, the overall data rhythm model for the stages procedures that are often fewer than expected. The study therefore has further problems regarding the diagnostic check stage, which will only show when the proposed model is "too small" and will not tell when the proposed model is "too big". This study uses variable data of rupiah exchange rate against US dollar during period of December 1984 - December 2017.